Arnold is running for Governor or California. There is sure to be lots of commentary on Schwarzenegger as the Running Man (groan), but I wonder if his candidicy is helpful for Republicans. By running, he kept former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan, another moderate Republican, out of the race, and polls have shown that Riordan would be a stronger candidate than Schwarzenegger.

Schwarzenegger may also hurt the Republicans in another way. He is less likely than Riordan to scare other Republicans out of the race. That's important because of the recent decision of Lt. Governor Cruz Bustamante, who chose to run for Governor as a Democrat. Bustamante's decision makes presenting a unified front crucial for the Republicans because of the way the balloting works for the recall election. As I understand it, the ballot will consists of two questions: (1) Should Davis be recalled, and (2) Who should replace him. If no Democrat declared, then as many Republicans could run as wanted to, and, as long as Davis was recalled, the party would be sure to win. In that situation, in fact, the more the merrier, because each candidate might bring out more votes to vote against Davis. However, now that Bustamante will be in the mix for question (2), a split Republican vote might allow him to win, and cost the Republicans the election.

Who knows, though. Regan did better than anyone expected, why not Arnold?

- posted by Tom Sawyer @ 9:36 AM