Looking at the polls

The Washington Post this morning is giddily reporting that Kerry beats Bush in a head to head poll, with the President's support eroding on all grounds except the war on terror. But digging deeper into the numbers tells an interesting story:

Also, Bush begins the campaign with a strong reservoir of support that Kerry lacks: Nearly nine in 10 Bush supporters say they "strongly" support him, compared with two in three Kerry voters. In addition, six in 10 Kerry supporters say they are voting for the Democrat more as a protest against Bush and his policies, and not because they are attracted to Kerry. By contrast, nearly nine in 10 Bush voters say their support is based on their feelings toward the president, not disapproval of Kerry.

I have to imagine that as things progress, this will be the most important question: Will people who don’t really like Kerry that much turn out in numbers sufficient to beat people who actually do like the President? I am betting no.
- posted by Anonymous @ 8:17 AM